Opportunity Costs

Friday, January 10, 2025

Changes bring opportunities. We can either seize those opportunities or complain about missing them. I learned this lesson from many leaders—even from Shakespeare. In Julius Caesar, he wrote:

“There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune…”

Even while locked in a solitary cell, I could appreciate the wisdom from such a passage. I faced decades in confinement because of the bad decisions I made. There wasn’t anything I could do about those bad decisions, or about the position they had put me in. I could either complain, or I could start considering the ways that I could adjust. 

Perhaps the crisis could be an opportunity to recalibrate. If I adjusted well, I could sow seeds for future success. That mindset shaped the books I read, the lessons I studied, the way I thought, and the mentors I tried to emulate. I didn’t need direct contact with leaders to learn from them. Instead, I could learn from the choices they made, and I could try to assess the strategies they used to grow. Then, I could make a plan that, I hoped, would lead to higher achievements.

Lessons Learned

In Earning Freedom: Conquering a 45-Year Prison Term, I wrote how strategic thinking led to my growing stronger and more resilient during the decades I served. I use those same strategies today, anticipating how changes will open opportunities in real time.

In about ten days, our nation’s leadership will change. For more than a year, I’ve been looking at ways to position myself for new opportunities. As I did while in prison, I consider how my decisions today could open doors tomorrow. As an investor, I noticed the following facts:

  • Last Summer, candidate Trump spoke at a Bitcoin conference, pledging robust support for crypto.
  • Multiple U.S. members of Congress pledged to change laws that would encourage wider crypto adoption.
  • Business leaders praised crypto as one of the best-performing asset classes in recent memory.
  • Corporate discussions were underway about adding Bitcoin to company balance sheets.
  • More people were talking about the possibility of legislation that could lead to a Strategic Bitcoin reserve.

These trends were available to anyone paying attention to economic news. By recognizing them, I saw a new “tide in the affairs of men,” and I wanted to make decisions that would help me ride that tide rather than lament missed opportunities.


Shifting Asset Classes

I spoke with Carole about how we could participate in this wave. At that time, Bitcoin’s value hovered between the high $50,000 and $60,000 range. As part of the investment portfolio I’d been building, in early 2024, I began buying Bitcoin. By the summer, we held 10 Bitcoins, with an average acquisition cost of approximately $56,000. For various reasons, we anticipated the price to go higher. Yet with changes in the world, I anticipated that Bitcoin could rise substantially—potentially by 10x or more—over the next four to five years. Many people disagreed with my assessment, but each person has to do his own research and draw conclusions from what they find.

My research suggested that Carole and I should make some changes to get ahead of the curve we anticipated. We decided to sell our biggest asset: our personal residence. In December of 2024, a buyer agreed to pay our asking price of $2.15 million. I signed the contract, and on Monday, we expect to close escrow on the sale. We will receive about $1.3 million in proceeds, and I’ll deploy those resources to advance our exposure to Bitcoin and to stocks related to the growth of artificial intelligence.

By acting strategically, I’m aligning my decisions with the opportunities I see on the horizon. Just as in prison—where I had to trust that the seeds I planted would lead to greater prospects in the future—I’m again betting on the value of thinking long-term, anticipating change, and making bold choices.

Always invest in yourself, and you’ll position yourself to seize or create opportunities. To the extent you make good decisions, you may go on to create your fortune.


Self-Directed Learning Question

  • How can you prepare today—mentally, financially, or otherwise—to seize the opportunities that future changes may bring, rather than looking back with regret at missed chances?